
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.1338125
handle: 10419/60860
We present estimates of the term structure of inflation expectations, derived from an affine model of real and nominal yield curves. The model features stochastic covariation of inflation with the real pricing kernel, enabling us to extract a time-varying inflation risk premium. We fit the model not only to yields, but also to the yields' variance-covariance matrix, thus increasing identification power. We find that model-implied inflation expectations can differ substantially from break-even inflation rates when market volatility is high. Our model's ability to be updated weekly makes it suitable for real-time monetary policy analysis.
Zinsstruktur, Geldpolitik, inflation expectations, ddc:330, monetary policy, asset pricing, Volatilität, Kapitalertrag, Capital Asset Pricing Model, Inflationserwartung, G10, Affine term structure models, G12, stochastic volatility, Inflation risk ; Asset pricing ; Financial markets ; Stochastic analysis, Theorie
Zinsstruktur, Geldpolitik, inflation expectations, ddc:330, monetary policy, asset pricing, Volatilität, Kapitalertrag, Capital Asset Pricing Model, Inflationserwartung, G10, Affine term structure models, G12, stochastic volatility, Inflation risk ; Asset pricing ; Financial markets ; Stochastic analysis, Theorie
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