
handle: 10986/5760 , 11565/2505391
In the last century most countries have experienced both an increase in pension spending and a decline in fertility, We argue that the interplay of pension generosity and development of capital markets is crucial to understand fertility decisions. Since children have traditionally represented for parents a form of retirement saving, particularly in economies with limited or non-existent capital markets, an exogenous increase of pension spending provides a saving technology alternative to children, thus relaxing financial (saving) constraints and reducing fertility. We build a simple two-period OLG model to show that an increase in pensions is associated with a larger decrease in fertility in countries in which individuals have less access to financial markets. Cross-country regression analysis support our result: an interaction between various measures of pension generosity and a proxy for the development of financial markets consistently enters the regressions positively and significantly, suggesting that in economies with limited financial markets, children represent a (if not the only) way for parents to save for old age, and that increases in pensions amount effectively to relaxing these constraints.
Demographic Trends and Forecasts, 330, Saving, ,Debt Markets,Population Policies,Emerging Markets,Pensions&Retirement Systems, Personal Finance D140, fertility; PAYG pension systems; financial markets; intergenerational transfers, Social Security and Public Pensions H550, General Migration J110, INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH AREAS :: Children, Macroeconomics: Consumption, Fertility, Youth J130, Wealth E210, Family Planning, Child Care, fertility; financial markets; intergenerational transfers; PAYG pension systems, jel: jel:H55, jel: jel:J13
Demographic Trends and Forecasts, 330, Saving, ,Debt Markets,Population Policies,Emerging Markets,Pensions&Retirement Systems, Personal Finance D140, fertility; PAYG pension systems; financial markets; intergenerational transfers, Social Security and Public Pensions H550, General Migration J110, INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH AREAS :: Children, Macroeconomics: Consumption, Fertility, Youth J130, Wealth E210, Family Planning, Child Care, fertility; financial markets; intergenerational transfers; PAYG pension systems, jel: jel:H55, jel: jel:J13
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