
In this paper, we examine the cost of insurance against model uncertainty for the Euro area considering four alternative reference models, all of which are used for policy-analysis at the ECB. We find that maximal insurance across this model range in terms of a Minimax policy comes at moderate costs in terms of lower expected performance. We extract priors that would rationalize the Minimax policy from a Bayesian perspective. These priors indicate that full insurance is strongly oriented towards the model with highest baseline losses. Furthermore, this policy is not as tolerant towards small perturbations of policy parameters as the Bayesian policy rule. We propose to strike a compromise and use preferences for policy design that allow for intermediate degrees of ambiguity-aversion. These preferences allow the specification of priors but also give extra weight to the worst uncertain outcomes in a given context.
minimax, Geldpolitik, 330, Monetary policy - Europe ; Monetary policy - Mathematical models, 336, robustness, euro area, Währungsunion, Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion, euro area; minimax; model uncertainty; monetary policy rules; robustness, Risiko, E58, Robustness, E52, monetary policy rules, Europäische Union, ddc:330, model uncertainty, robustness, monetary policy rules, minimax, euro area, E61, Model uncertainty, EU-Staaten, Model uncertainty,robustness,monetary policy rules,minimax,euro area, euro area, minimax, Model uncertainty, monetary policy rules, Robustness, Eurozone, jel: jel:E61, jel: jel:E52, jel: jel:E58
minimax, Geldpolitik, 330, Monetary policy - Europe ; Monetary policy - Mathematical models, 336, robustness, euro area, Währungsunion, Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion, euro area; minimax; model uncertainty; monetary policy rules; robustness, Risiko, E58, Robustness, E52, monetary policy rules, Europäische Union, ddc:330, model uncertainty, robustness, monetary policy rules, minimax, euro area, E61, Model uncertainty, EU-Staaten, Model uncertainty,robustness,monetary policy rules,minimax,euro area, euro area, minimax, Model uncertainty, monetary policy rules, Robustness, Eurozone, jel: jel:E61, jel: jel:E52, jel: jel:E58
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 21 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 10% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% |
