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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2009 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2009
Data sources: EconStor
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Inflation Forecasting in the New EU Member States

Authors: Arratibel, Olga; Leiner-Killinger, Nadine; Kamps, Christophe;

Inflation Forecasting in the New EU Member States

Abstract

To the best of our knowledge, our paper is the first systematic study of the predictive power of monetary aggregates for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on the forecast performance of a large set of monetary and nonmonetary indicators. The forecast evaluation results suggest that, as has been found for other countries before, it is difficult to find models that significantly outperform a simple benchmark, especially at short forecast horizons. Nevertheless, monetary indicators are found to contain useful information for predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons.

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Keywords

fiscal policy, inflation forecasting, information content of money, Leading indicators, monetary policy, new EU member states, Monetärer Indikator, ddc:330, E37, leading indicators, new EU member states, monetary policy, Wirtschaftsindikator, P24, Inflation, information content of money, Geldmenge, Fiscal Policy, EU-Mitgliedschaft, Inflation forecasting, Prognoseverfahren, C53, E51, E62, E52, E31

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
bronze