
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.1310611
handle: 10419/153410
This paper tests the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of interest rates in US data, using spectral regression techniques that allow us to consider different frequency bands. We find a positive relation between the term spread and the change in the long-term interest rate in a frequency band of 6 months to 4 years, whereas the relation is negative at higher and lower frequencies. We confirm that the variance of term premia relative to expected changes in long-term interest rates dominates at high and low frequencies, leading the EH to be rejected in those bands but not in the intermediate frequency band.
Zinsstruktur, ddc:330, frequency domain, spectral regression, Expectations theory of the term structure, frequency domain, Interest Rates, spectral regression, Expectations theory of the term structure, Interest Rates, Zeitreihenanalyse, C22, Theorie, USA, E43
Zinsstruktur, ddc:330, frequency domain, spectral regression, Expectations theory of the term structure, frequency domain, Interest Rates, spectral regression, Expectations theory of the term structure, Interest Rates, Zeitreihenanalyse, C22, Theorie, USA, E43
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