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SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association
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The Information Content in a Volatility Index for Spain

Authors: Gonzalez-Perez, Maria T.; Novales, Alfonso;

The Information Content in a Volatility Index for Spain

Abstract

A model-free methodology is used for the first time to estimate a daily volatility index (VIBEX-NEW) for the Spanish financial market. We use a public data set of daily option prices to compute this index and show that daily changes in VIBEX-NEW display a negative, tight contemporaneous relationship with IBEX daily returns, contrary to other common volatility indicators, as an implied volatility indicator or a GARCH(1,1) conditional volatility model. This relationship is approximately symmetric to the sign on VIBEX-NEW changes and asymmetric to the IBEX-35 returns sign, which make it clearly a suitable volatility index for the Spanish stock market. We also examine the relationship between current VIBEX-NEW and future IBEX-35 volatility. Our results suggest that VIBEX-NEW can be used to produce IBEX-35 volatility forecasts at least as good as historical and conditional volatility measures. A feasible volatility correction methodology is proposed to achieve it.

Keywords

model-based volatility index, ddc:330, G13, ARCH-Modell, G15, leverage effect, Börsenkurs, Volatilität, forecasting volatility, model-free volatility index, Indexberechnung, Prognoseverfahren, C53, risk, Spanien

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Average
Average
Average
gold