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Energy Economics
Article
License: CC BY SA
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Energy Economics
Article . 2010 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2008 . Peer-reviewed
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Volatility Transmission and Volatility Impulse Response Functions in European Electricity Forward Markets

Authors: Le Pen, Yannick; Sévi, Benoît;

Volatility Transmission and Volatility Impulse Response Functions in European Electricity Forward Markets

Abstract

Using daily data from March 2001 to June 2005, we estimate a VAR-BEKK model and find evidence of return and volatility spillovers between the German, the Dutch and the British forward electricity markets. We apply Hafner and Herwartz [2006, Journal of International Money and Finance 25, 719-740] Volatility Impulse Response Function (VIRF) to quantify the impact of shock on expected conditional volatility. We observe that a shock has a high positive impact only if its size is large compared to the current level of volatility. The impact of shocks are usually not persistent, which may be an indication of market efficiency. Finally, we estimate the density of the VIRF at different forecast horizon. These fitted distributions are asymmetric and show that extreme events are possible even if their probability is low. These results have interesting implications for market participants whose risk management policy is based on option prices which themselves depend on the volatility level.

Keywords

GARCH multivarié, GARCH, non, Q43, 330, volatility, Economie financière, volatility impulse response function, 332, [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences, electricity forward markets, marché forward de l’électricité, volatility impulse response function, GARCH, non Gaussian distributions, electricity market, forward markets, G1, electricity, multivariate GARCH, C3, volatility spillovers, transmission de volatilité, forward, Fonction impulsion réponse de volatilité, jel: jel:G1, jel: jel:Q43, jel: jel:C3

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
48
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
hybrid