
This paper shows that in a cross section of countries there exists a strong positive correlation between long-term growth rates and the persistence of output fluctuations. We argue that the traditional explanation of persistence, an RBC model with exogenous productivity shocks, cannot account for this correlation. What is required is a model where the stochastic nature of the trend is endogenous and growth dynamics is an important component of the transmission of business cycles. We present a stylized endogenous growth model with exogenous cyclical shocks where, despite the cyclical nature of the shocks, output fluctuations are persistent and the degree of persistence is an increasing function of long-term growth rates.
Business Cycles; Economic Growth; Persistence; Stochastic Trends, jel: jel:O40, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:C22
Business Cycles; Economic Growth; Persistence; Stochastic Trends, jel: jel:O40, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:C22
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 34 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 10% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
