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Weather Derivative Pricing and the Modelling of Trends: Objective Bayesian Versions of the Flat-Line, Linear Trend and Damped Linear Trend Models

Authors: Stephen Jewson;

Weather Derivative Pricing and the Modelling of Trends: Objective Bayesian Versions of the Flat-Line, Linear Trend and Damped Linear Trend Models

Abstract

Published methods for the pricing of weather derivatives are based on classical statistics, in that the predictions of the distributions of weather indices that they use are based on best estimates of model parameters. It is likely that such methods do not accurately capture the true uncertainty because they either ignore or approximate parameter and model uncertainty. In this article we derive the objective Bayesian versions of the flat-line and linear-trend models. The use of objective Bayesian statistics allows us to incorporate parameter uncertainty into the predictive distribution in a simple way. The result is a change in the shape of the predictive distribution, but no change in the predicted mean and variance, when compared with comparable classical statistical methods. We also derive a Bayesian version of the damped linear-trend model, which, in a limited sense, also incorporates model uncertainty.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
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