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Sovereign Ratings and Oil-Producing Countries: Have Sovereign Ratings Run Ahead of Fundamentals?

Authors: Robert V. Breunig; Tse Chern Chia;

Sovereign Ratings and Oil-Producing Countries: Have Sovereign Ratings Run Ahead of Fundamentals?

Abstract

We investigate whether rising oil prices have resulted in over-rating of oil-producing countries by rating agencies, after controlling for fundamentals. Based on a large dataset of countries from Standard and Poor's and Moody's, we find strong statistical evidence of a large ratings premium-nearly two notches-for those oil-producing countries with a large share of net oil revenue to gross domestic product, relative to countries with similar economic fundamentals. We have some limited forecast information from the rating agencies and the effect increases when we include this information, providing further evidence that this ratings premium is not driven by expected improvements in fundamentals. This finding has significant implications for asset prices in oil-producing countries and highlights the risk that in the event of a sharp unanticipated drop in oil prices, sovereign rating downgrades of oil-producing countries could be sharper than the deterioration in their economic fundamentals.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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Average
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