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Explaining Currency Crises

Authors: Gerardo Esquivel; Felipe Larrain;

Explaining Currency Crises

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of currency crises with a panel annual dataset for 30 countries between 1975 and 1996. We estimate a probit model with random effects, and find that high rates of seignorage, current account imbalances, real exchange rate misalignment, low foreign exchange reserves, negative terms of trade shocks, poor growth performance, and a measure of regional contagion all have significant power to explain the presence of currency crises in our sample. In general, our results can be interpreted as supporting both first and second-generation models of currency crises. Various robustness tests confirm the validity of these results. We also find that currency crises have an important predictable component. Using our benchmark regression we are able to predict correctly a majority of the currency crises that occurred within our sample.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
36
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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