
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.106383
handle: 1814/647
This paper analyzes two features of concern to policy-makers in the countries of the prospective European Monetary Union: the solvency of their government's finances and the accuracy of fiscal forecasts. Extending the existing methodology of solvency tests, the paper finds that, with few exceptions, EU governments are insolvent, albeit debt/GDP ratios show signs of stabilizing. The accuracy of official short-term fiscal forecasts (those of the OECD) is analyzed, using conventional techniques, and found to be reassuring.
Deficits; Fiscal Policy; Forecast Accuracy; Maasticht treaty; Solvency; stability and growth pact, jel: jel:E62, jel: jel:D99, jel: jel:H63, jel: jel:C22
Deficits; Fiscal Policy; Forecast Accuracy; Maasticht treaty; Solvency; stability and growth pact, jel: jel:E62, jel: jel:D99, jel: jel:H63, jel: jel:C22
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 21 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 10% | |
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