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Reporting Biases and Survey Results: Evidence from European Professional Forecasters

Authors: García, Juan Angel; Manzanares, Andrés;

Reporting Biases and Survey Results: Evidence from European Professional Forecasters

Abstract

Using data from the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters, we investigate the reporting practices of survey participants by comparing their point predictions and the mean/median/mode of their probability forecasts. We find that the individual point predictions, on average, tend to be biased towards favourable outcomes: they suggest too high growth and too low inflation rates. Most importantly, for each survey round, the aggregate survey results based on the average of the individual point predictions are also biased. These findings cast doubt on combined survey measures that average individual point predictions. Survey results based on probability forecasts are more reliable.

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Keywords

Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), Wirtschaftswachstum, ddc:330, E27, subjective probability distributions, Befragung, point estimates, subjective probability distributions, survey methods, Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), survey methods, Frühindikator, Inflationserwartung, Kritik, EU-Staaten, E47, Prognoseverfahren, C42, point estimates

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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
6
Average
Average
Average
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