
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.1028713
handle: 10419/153264
This paper provides a toolkit for extracting accurate information about inflation expectations using inflation-linked bonds. First, we show how to estimate term structures of zero-coupon real rates and break-even inflation rates (BEIRs) in the euro area. This improves the analysis of developments in inflation expectations by providing constant maturity measures. Second, we show that seasonality in consumer prices introduces misleading and quantitatively important time-varying distortions in the calculated BEIRs. We explain how to correct for this in the estimation of the term structure, and thus provide a unified framework for extracting constant maturity BEIRs corrected for seasonality.
Zinsstruktur, break-even inflation rates, inflation seasonality, inflation-linked bonds, Term structure, ddc:330, Rentenmarkt, inflation-linked bonds, break-even inflation rates, Saisonale Schwankungen, Inflationserwartung, Term structure, Indexanleihe, EU-Staaten, inflation seasonality, G12, Eurozone, E31, Theorie, E43
Zinsstruktur, break-even inflation rates, inflation seasonality, inflation-linked bonds, Term structure, ddc:330, Rentenmarkt, inflation-linked bonds, break-even inflation rates, Saisonale Schwankungen, Inflationserwartung, Term structure, Indexanleihe, EU-Staaten, inflation seasonality, G12, Eurozone, E31, Theorie, E43
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