
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.1018893
The share of Spanish exports in the Chinese market is much lower than their share in the global market. This document examines whether we are exporting to China below our potential. To that end, we compare the actual level of exports to China with the level predicted by the model of bilateral trade predominant in the literature. We find that between 1990 and 1999 Spanish exports to China were above the prediction of the model, while Chinese exports to Spain were fairly close to the prediction of the model. From 1999 onwards, actual bilateral trade flows between Spain and China, in both directions, are below the prediction of the model. Our results also suggest that, given the fundamentals explaining trade volumes, Spanish exports to other markets and not only to China are below their potential.
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