Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
addClaim

Estimating Value at Risk: From JP Morgan's Standard-EWMA to Skewed-EWMA Forecasting

Authors: Zudi LU; Hai Huang;

Estimating Value at Risk: From JP Morgan's Standard-EWMA to Skewed-EWMA Forecasting

Abstract

Driven significantly by JP Morgan's RiskMetrics system with exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) forecasting, value-at-risk (VaR) has become a popularly used measurement of the extent to which a financial asset is subject to the risks present in financial markets. In this paper we propose a new approach named skewed-EWMA to forecasting the changing volatility and formulating an adaptive and efficient estimation procedure to forecast VaR. Differently from the standard-EWMA in JP Morgan's RiskMetrics derived from a Gaussian distribution and the robust-EWMA proposed by Guermat and Harris (2001) from a Laplace distribution, we motivate our skewed-EWMA procedure derived from an asymmetric Laplace distribution, with both skewness and heavy tails of financial return distributions taken into account and in particular adapting to the changing nature of skewness and heavy tails in financial practice by an EWMA based adaptive adjustment of a shape parameter in the distribution. Backtesting results show that our skewed-EWMA forecasting of VaR offers a viable improvement over both the standard-EWMA and the robust-EWMA estimators.

Related Organizations
  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    0
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Upload OA version
Are you the author of this publication? Upload your Open Access version to Zenodo!
It’s fast and easy, just two clicks!