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License: CC BY NC
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Games and Economic Behavior
Article . 2002 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
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zbMATH Open
Article . 2002
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https://doi.org/10.21034/wp.59...
Article . 1999 . Peer-reviewed
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DBLP
Article . 2020
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Calibration and Bayesian Learning

Calibration and Bayesian learning.
Authors: Nurlan Turdaliev;

Calibration and Bayesian Learning

Abstract

According to the author, in a repeated game of incomplete information, myopic players form beliefs on next-period play and choose strategies to maximize next-period payoffs, and their beliefs are treated as forecast of future plays. The forecast accuracy is assessed using calibration tests, which measure asymptotic accuracy of beliefs against some reliazations; the beliefs are calibrated if they pass all calibration tests. For a positive Lebesgue measure of payoff vectors, beliefs are not calibrated; but if a payoff vector and a calibration test are drawn from a suitable product measure, beliefs pass the calibration test almost surely.

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Keywords

Bayesian learning, Repeated games, Calibration, Multistage and repeated games, Forecast, Rationality and learning in game theory, Forecasting

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
bronze
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