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The Quarterly Journal of Economics
Article . 2026 . Peer-reviewed
License: OUP Standard Publication Reuse
Data sources: Crossref
https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.59...
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Monetary Policy and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies (NK Default)

Authors: Cristina Arellano; Yan Bai; Gabriel Mihalache;

Monetary Policy and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies (NK Default)

Abstract

Abstract This article develops a New Keynesian model with sovereign default risk. Inflation is set by forward-looking firms, monetary policy is an interest rate rule, and the fiscal government borrows externally, long-term, with an option to default. In this framework, default risk creates inflation pressures through an expectations channel, and tight monetary policy disincentivizes fiscal overborrowing. The model sheds light on temporary inflation events in emerging-market data: short-lived spikes in inflation, spreads, and domestic policy rates. As spreads rise, firms increase their prices in expectation of higher future inflation and low consumption during default. Monetary policy tightens, which reduces inflation and helps bring spreads down by disciplining government borrowing. These monetary-fiscal interactions imply that delivering the flexible-prices allocation may not be optimal for monetary policy.

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
11
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
hybrid