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Macro developments leading up to the 2008 crisis displayed an unprecedented degree of international synchronization. Before the crisis, all G7 countries experienced credit growth and, around the time of the Lehman bankruptcy, they all faced sharp and large contractions in both real and financial activity. Using a two-country model with financial frictions, we show that a global liquidity shortage induced by pessimistic self-fulfilling expectations can quantitatively generate patterns like those observed in the data. The model also suggests that crises are less frequent with more international financial integration but, when they hit, they are larger and more synchronized across countries. (JEL E23, E32, E44, F44, G01)
credit tightness; international crisis, jel: jel:F3, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:E3, jel: jel:F41
credit tightness; international crisis, jel: jel:F3, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:E3, jel: jel:F41
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 68 | |
popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 10% | |
impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |