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License: CC BY NC
Data sources: UnpayWall
Research Papers in Economics
Preprint . 2000
Full-Text: http://minneapolisfed.org/research/sr/sr267.pdf
Data sources: Research Papers in Economics
https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.26...
Article . 2000 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Predicting Turning Points

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Preprint 01 Jun 2000Publisher:Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Authors: Daniel M. Chin; John F. Geweke; Preston J. Miller;

doi: 10.21034/sr.267

Predicting Turning Points

Abstract

This paper presents a new method for predicting turning points. The paper formally defines a turning point; develops a probit model for estimating the probability of a turning point; and then examines both the in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting performance of the model. The model performs better than some other methods for predicting turning points.

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Keywords

Econometric models

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    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    		 7
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    		 Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    		 Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    		 Average
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
7
Average
Average
Average