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Article
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Journal of Business and Economic Statistics
Article
License: CC BY NC
Data sources: UnpayWall
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https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.10...
Article . 1987 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics
Article . 2002 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics
Article . 1987 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Vector Autoregressions and Reality

Authors: David E. Runkle;

Vector Autoregressions and Reality

Abstract

This article questions the statistical significance of variance decompositions and impulse response functions for unrestricted vector autoregressions. It suggests that previous authors have failed to provide confidence intervals for variance decompositions and impulse response functions. Two methods of computing such confidence intervals are developed: first, using a normal approximation; second, using bootstrapped resampling. An example from Sims's work is used to illustrate the importance of computing these confidence intervals. In this example, the 95% confidence intervals for variance decompositions span up to 66 percentage points at the usual forecasting horizon.

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Keywords

Econometric models ; Vector autoregression

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    popularity
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    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
234
Top 1%
Top 1%
Top 10%
hybrid