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Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
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Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Article . 1988 . Peer-reviewed
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Article . 1988
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https://doi.org/10.21034/dp.3...
Article . 1988 . Peer-reviewed
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Bayesian Skepticism on Unit Root Econometrics

Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics
Authors: Christopher A. Sims;

Bayesian Skepticism on Unit Root Econometrics

Abstract

Abstract This paper examines several grounds for doubting the value of much of the special attention recently devoted to unit root econometrics. Unit root hypotheses are less well connected to economic theory than is often suggested or assumed; distribution theory for tests of other hypotheses in models containing unit roots are less often affected by the presence of unit roots than has been widely recognized; and the Bayesian inferential theory for dynamic models is largely unaffected by the presence of unit roots. The paper displays an example to show that when Bayesian probability statements and classical marginal significance levels diverge as they do for unit root models, the marginal significance levels are misleading. The paper shows how to carry out Bayesian inference when discrete weight is given to the unit root null hypothesis in a univariate model.

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Keywords

unit root hypotheses, marginal significance levels, Bayesian inference, Econometrics, Applications of statistics to economics

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
326
Top 1%
Top 1%
Top 10%
hybrid