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Journal of Disaster Research
Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Journal of Disaster Research
Article
License: CC BY ND
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Methods for Eruption Prediction and Hazard Evaluation at Indonesian Volcanoes

Authors: Masato Iguchi; null Surono; Takeshi Nishimura; Muhamad Hendrasto; Umar Rosadi; Takahiro Ohkura; Hetty Triastuty; +7 Authors

Methods for Eruption Prediction and Hazard Evaluation at Indonesian Volcanoes

Abstract

We report methods, based on geophysical observations and geological surveys, for the prediction of eruptions and the evaluation of the activity of 4 volcanoes in Indonesia. These are Semeru, Guntur, Kelud and Sinabung volcanoes. Minor increases in tilt were detected by borehole tiltmeters prior to eruptions at the Semeru volcano depending on the seismic amplitude of explosion earthquakes. The results show the possibility of prediction of the type and magnitude of eruption and the effectiveness of observation with a high signalto-noise ratio. The establishment of background data is important for evaluating volcanic activity in longterm prediction. Typical distributions of volcanic and local tectonic earthquakes were obtained around the Guntur volcano, where geodetic monitoring by continuous GPS observation is valuable. The cumulative volume of eruptive products is valuable for evaluating the potential for future eruption. The eruptive rate of the Kelud volcano is ca 2×106m3/y (dense rock equivalent), but the volume of the 2007 eruption was only 2×107m3, suggesting a still high potential for eruption. Based on geological surveys and dating, an eruption scenario is proposed for the activity of Mt. Sinabung, where phreatic eruptions occurred in 2010 after a historically long dormancy.

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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
30
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
gold