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How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?

Authors: Clemens J. M. Kool Author-Name-First Clemens J. M.; Daniel L. Thornton Author-Name-First Daniel L.;

How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?

Abstract

This paper investigates the effectiveness of forward guidance for the central banks of New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the United States. The authors test whether forward guidance improved market participants’ ability to forecast future short-term and long-term rates relative to several benchmarks. They find some evidence that forward guidance improved market participants’ ability to forecast short-term rates over relatively short forecast horizons for New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden but not the United States. However, the effects are typically small and frequently not statistically significant. Moreover, in no case are the results uniform across the benchmarks used. In addition, the authors find evidence of convergence of survey forecasters for New Zealand but less so for the other countries and no evidence of convergence for the United States.

Country
Netherlands
Related Organizations
Keywords

term structure, ddc:330, Monetary policy; Banks and banking; Central, monetary policy, forecasting, interest rates, central bank transparency, monetary policy, central bank transparency, interest rates, term structure, forecasting, E47, monetary policy, central bank transparency, interest rates, term structure, forecasting., E52, E43, jel: jel:E43, jel: jel:E52, jel: jel:E47

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    42
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
42
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
gold