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El Trimestre Económico
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El Trimestre Económico
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El Trimestre Económico
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Análisis PANIC del desempleo español

Authors: Diego Romero-Ávila; Carlos Usabiaga; Alejandro C. Garcia-Cintado;

Análisis PANIC del desempleo español

Abstract

Este artículo estudia las propiedades estocásticas de las tasas regionales de desempleo español usando datos trimestrales del periodo 1976(1)-2013(2). Para ello, se emplean los métodos Panel Analysis of Nonstationarity in Idiosyncratic and Common components (PANIC) de Bai y Ng (2004 y 2010), que permiten la descomposición de las series observadas de tasas de desempleo en un componente común y un componente idiosincrásico. Esto nos permite identificar con precisión la fuente subyacente en el comportamiento no estacionario del desempleo regional español. Nuestro análisis ofrece evidencia clara de la hipótesis de histéresis, que parece estar causada por una tendencia estocástica común que impulsa a las series de desempleo regionales. Estos resultados están respaldados por los obtenidos de la estimación insesgada en la mediana del parámetro de persistencia, que arroja un valor unitario para el factor común, y en menor medida por la estimación de la vida media obtenida a partir de funciones impulso-respuesta, que arroja un valor de 12.5 para el caso de las perturbaciones que afectan a la tendencia común. Este análisis de persistencia también ofrece evidencia de estacionariedad para la mayoría de las series idiosincrásicas (salvo para dos regiones), en la línea del análisis PANIC

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Keywords

vida media de una perturbación, Economic history and conditions, HC10-1085, análisis panic, Economics as a science, persistencia, clasificación jel, j64, factor común, e24, tasa de desempleo, HB71-74, c23, estimación insesgada en la mediana

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
gold