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EFEITO DA VOLATILIDADE DA TAXA DE CÂMBIO NO CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO BRASILEIRO

Authors: Osmar José Bertholini Pianca; Arilton Teixeira; Poliano Bastos da Cruz;

EFEITO DA VOLATILIDADE DA TAXA DE CÂMBIO NO CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO BRASILEIRO

Abstract

Essa pesquisa intenta identificar com acuidade o efeito da volatilidade da taxa de câmbio no crescimento. Seguindo a literatura, a análise foi realizada em um país em desenvolvimento, intentando identificar o efeito direto da volatilidade no crescimento. Ao contrário da maioria dos estudos empíricos, foi realizada uma análise em um único país objetivando mitigar problemas de comparabilidade dos dados. Optou-se pelo Brasil, pois, o mesmo é o país com maior destaque dentre os BRICs, segundo a OCDE, e pesquisas sugerem que séries históricas de correlacionadas com o crescimento apresentam comportamento similar ao observado no mundo. Mensurou-se volatilidade por oito métricas e crescimento por meio duas métricas. As estimações foram realizadas pelo Método Generalizado dos Momentos, por apresentar melhor propriedades de amostras finitas e para tratar problemas de endogeneidade. Os resultados desse estudo apresentam evidências que sugerem que a volatilidade cambial afeta negativamente o crescimento.

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Keywords

HB1-3840, Taxa de câmbio real, HF1-6182, Volatilidade cambial. Taxa de câmbio real. Taxa de câmbio nominal. PIB per capita. Crescimento econômico., Taxa de câmbio nominal, Commerce, Economic theory. Demography, PIB per capita, Volatilidade cambial

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
gold