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Journal of Business & Economics Research (JBER)
Article . 2011 . Peer-reviewed
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Stock Return, Consumer Confidence, Purchasing Managers Index And Economic Fluctuations

Authors: Tahmoures Afshar; Ghodratollah Arabian; Reza Zomorrodian;

Stock Return, Consumer Confidence, Purchasing Managers Index And Economic Fluctuations

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates, in the context of vector autoregression and error-correction methodology, the link between three confidence measures of consumers, investors, businesses, and economic fluctuations. Using quarterly data for the United Sates from 1980 to 2005, we found that the hypothesis that these confidence measures do not Granger-cause GDP was rejected, even after controlling for other macroeconomic variables. Forecast Variance decompositions of GDP suggest that consumer confidence, stock return, and purchasing manger’s index, account for large variations in GDP. Overall, the results reconfirm the views that these measures play important roles in economic fluctuations.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
11
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
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