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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Ecologyarrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Ecology
Article . 2010 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
Ecology
Article . 2010
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Analysis of ecological time series with ARMA(p,q) models

Authors: Anthony R, Ives; Karen C, Abbott; Nicolas L, Ziebarth;

Analysis of ecological time series with ARMA(p,q) models

Abstract

Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are useful statistical tools to examine the dynamical characteristics of ecological time‐series data. Here, we illustrate the utility and challenges of applying ARMA(p,q) models, wherepis the dimension of the autoregressive component of the model, andqis the dimension of the moving average component. We focus on parameter estimation and model selection, comparing both maximum likelihood (ML) and restricted maximum likelihood (REML) parameter estimation. While REML estimation performs better (has less bias) than ML estimation for ARMA(p,q) models withp= 1 (as has been found previously), for models withp> 1 the performance of the estimators is complicated by multimodal likelihood functions. The resulting difficulties in estimation lead to our recommendation that likelihood functions be routinely investigated when applying ARMA(p,q) models. To aid this investigation, we provide MATLAB and R code for the ML and REML likelihood functions. We further explore the consequences of measurement error, showing how it can be explicitly and implicitly incorporated into estimation. In addition to parameter estimation, we also examine model selection for identifying the correct model dimensions (pandq). Finally, we estimate the characteristic return rate of the stochastic process to its stationary distribution, a quantity that describes a key property of population dynamics, and investigate bias that results from both estimation and model selection. While fitting ARMA models to ecological time series with complex dynamics has challenges, these challenges can be surmounted, making ARMA a useful and broadly applicable approach.

Keywords

Models, Statistical, Time Factors, Population Dynamics, Animals, Computer Simulation, Galliformes, Models, Biological, Ecosystem

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
94
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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