
doi: 10.1890/09-0442.1
pmid: 20426343
Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are useful statistical tools to examine the dynamical characteristics of ecological time‐series data. Here, we illustrate the utility and challenges of applying ARMA(p,q) models, wherepis the dimension of the autoregressive component of the model, andqis the dimension of the moving average component. We focus on parameter estimation and model selection, comparing both maximum likelihood (ML) and restricted maximum likelihood (REML) parameter estimation. While REML estimation performs better (has less bias) than ML estimation for ARMA(p,q) models withp= 1 (as has been found previously), for models withp> 1 the performance of the estimators is complicated by multimodal likelihood functions. The resulting difficulties in estimation lead to our recommendation that likelihood functions be routinely investigated when applying ARMA(p,q) models. To aid this investigation, we provide MATLAB and R code for the ML and REML likelihood functions. We further explore the consequences of measurement error, showing how it can be explicitly and implicitly incorporated into estimation. In addition to parameter estimation, we also examine model selection for identifying the correct model dimensions (pandq). Finally, we estimate the characteristic return rate of the stochastic process to its stationary distribution, a quantity that describes a key property of population dynamics, and investigate bias that results from both estimation and model selection. While fitting ARMA models to ecological time series with complex dynamics has challenges, these challenges can be surmounted, making ARMA a useful and broadly applicable approach.
Models, Statistical, Time Factors, Population Dynamics, Animals, Computer Simulation, Galliformes, Models, Biological, Ecosystem
Models, Statistical, Time Factors, Population Dynamics, Animals, Computer Simulation, Galliformes, Models, Biological, Ecosystem
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