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Анализ и прогнозирование ценовой динамики фондового рынка с помощью методов машинного обучения

выпускная квалификационная работа бакалавра

Анализ и прогнозирование ценовой динамики фондового рынка с помощью методов машинного обучения

Abstract

В настоящей работе исследуется применение методов машинного обучения для прогнозирования временных рядов. Рассмотрены варианты использования ARIMA моделей, нейросетей и алгоритма градиентного бустинга. В качестве обучающих выборок использовались цены на акции, а также данные, полученные в результате применения технических индикаторов. На основе этих методов и обучающих выборок были сделаны прогнозы дальнейшего ценообразования, построены графики и посчитаны метрики для каждого из исследуемых методов. Были получены теоретические и практические результаты, проведён анализ и сделаны выводы об эффективности использованных алгоритмов.

This paper explores the application of machine learning methods for time series forecasting. The options for using ARIMA models, neural networks and the gradient boosting algorithm are considered. As training samples, stock prices were used, as well as data obtained as a result of applying technical indicators. Based on these methods and training samples, further pricing forecasts were made, graphs were built and metrics were calculated for each of the studied methods. Theoretical and practical results were obtained, analysis was carried out, and conclusions were drawn about the effectiveness of the algorithms used.

Keywords

нейросети, machine learning, машинное обучение, фондовый рынок, ARIMA, LSTM, neural networks, programming, stock market, программирование, XGBoost

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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