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Применение метода имитационного моделирования террористического акта на примере торгового центра

выпускная квалификационная работа магистра

Применение метода имитационного моделирования террористического акта на примере торгового центра

Abstract

Тема выпускной квалификационной работы: «Применение метода имитационного моделирования террористического акта на примере торгового центра». Данная работа посвящена исследованию и моделированию террористического акта в торговом центре. Задачи, которые решались в ходе исследования: 1. Анализ видов моделирования и исследований в области имитационного моделирования; 2. Анализ методики по определению расчетных величин поражающих факторов взрыва и определение числа погибших; 3. Разработка имитационной модели террористического акта в торговом центре; 4. Проведение экспериментов на полученной модели и оценка полученных данных в ходе моделирования в программе Anylogic; 5. Сравнение полученных при моделировании параметров с расчетными значениями. Работа проведена на базе торгово-развлекательного центра «Галерея». Имитационное моделирование производилось с помощью программного обеспечения Anylogic, оснащенного базами данных необходимых для моделирования людских потоков, и воссоздания различных сценариев теракта. В результате было произведено исследование имитационной модели. Проведена оценка поражающих факторов ударной взрывной волны и определено количество погибших и оценка работоспособности модели путем сравнения рассчитанных показателей с результатами эксперимента разработанной модели. Доказана пригодность модели для дальнейшего проведения экспериментов и моделирования взрывов в любых помещениях и зданиях.

The subject of the graduate qualification work is «Application of the method of simulation of a terrorist attack on the example of a shopping center». This work is devoted to the study and modeling of a terrorist attack in a shopping centers. Tasks that were solved during the study: 1. Analysis of types of modeling and researches in the field of simulation; 2. Analysis of the methodology for determining the calculated values of the damaging factors of the explosion and determining the number of dead; 3. Development of a simulation model of a terrorist attack in a shopping center; 4. Carrying out experiments on the obtained model and evaluating the obtained data during modeling in the Anylogic program; 5. Comparison of the parameters obtained during the simulation with the calculated values. The work was carried out on the basis of the shopping and entertainment center «Gallery». Simulation modeling was carried out using the AnyLogic software equipped with databases necessary to simulate human flows and recreate various scenarios of a terrorist attack. As a result, a study was carried out of a simulation model. An assessment of the damaging factors of the shock blast wave was carried out and the death toll was determined and the performance of the model was assessed by comparing the calculated indicators with the results of the experiment of the developed model. The suitability of the model for further experiments and simulation of explosions in any premises and buildings has been proven.

Keywords

террористический акт, agent approach, агентный Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ñ Ð¾Ð´, Математическое моделирование, act of terror

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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