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Применение методов математического моделирования при прогнозировании банкротства предприятий малого бизнеса

выпускная квалификационная работа бакалавра

Применение методов математического моделирования при прогнозировании банкротства предприятий малого бизнеса

Abstract

Объектами исследования являются предприятия малого бизнеса отрасли сельское хозяйство. Целью ВКРявляется— выбор адекватной модели прогнозирования банкротства на базе анализа отчетности предприятий малого бизнеса. Дана характеристика развития малого предпринимательства в РФ, проведен сравнительный анализ российских и зарубежных моделей прогнозирования вероятности банкротства, описаны преимущества и недостатки моделей, рассчитаны финансовые коэффициенты отобранных для исследования предприятий малого бизнеса. Оценена вероятность банкротства анализируемых предприятий, разработаны рекомендации по диагностике банкротства для предприятий малого бизнеса сельскохозяйственной отрасли. Реализация разработанных рекомендаций позволит заблаговременно выявлять признаки банкротства и принимать меры по повышению финансовой устойчивости и платёжеспособности предприятий малого бизнеса.

The objects of research are small businesses in the agricultural sector. The aim of WRC is to select an adequate bankruptcy forecasting model based on an analysis of the reporting of small businesses. The characteristic of small business development in the Russian Federation is given, a comparative analysis of Russian and foreign models for predicting the probability of bankruptcy is carried out, the advantages and disadvantages of the models are described, the financial ratios of small businesses selected for the study are calculated. The probability of bankruptcy of the analyzed enterprises is estimated, recommendations for the diagnosis of bankruptcy for small businesses in the agricultural industry are developed. Implementation of the developed recommendations will allow us to identify signs of bankruptcy in advance and take measures to increase the financial stability and solvency of small businesses.

Keywords

financial reporting, финансовая отчетность, bankruptcy, model, small business, модели прогнозирования банкроства, forecasting, исследование применимости, предприятия малого безнеса, анализ

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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