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Cointegration and Causality Relationship between BIST 100 and BIST Gold Indices(BİST 100 ve BİST Altın Endeksleri Arasındaki Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik İlişkisi)

Authors: AÇIKALIN, Süleyman; BAŞCI, Savaş;

Cointegration and Causality Relationship between BIST 100 and BIST Gold Indices(BİST 100 ve BİST Altın Endeksleri Arasındaki Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik İlişkisi)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to determine the nature of the long term relationship between the BIST Gold Market Index (GOLD) and BIST 100 index (BIST). The daily closing values of both indices are obtained from the Borsa Istanbul’s official web site for the period of August 1 st 2012 to March 17 th 2015. Statistical methods of the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Engle-Granger cointegration test, error correction model, and finally Granger causality tests are used in the study. It is concluded that BIST and GOLD are cointegrated, which means that a long term equilibrium relationship exists between the two indices. The Granger causality test indicated that there is a unidirectional causality running from BIST towards GOLD for the period under investigation. In terms of short term dynamics, it is determined that the rate of the disequilibrium correction is slow at only about 2% on a daily basis. Any deviation from the long run equilibrium value is eliminated after about 50 days. Bu calismanin amaci BIST Altin Piyasa Endeksi (GOLD) ve BIST 100 endeksi (BIST) arasinda uzun donemli iliski olup olmadigini tespit etmektir. Soz konusu endekslerin 1 Agustos 2002 ile 17 Mart 2015 tarihleri arasindaki gunluk kapanis degerleri Borsa Istanbul’un resmi internet sitesinden alinmistir. Bu calismada Dickey Fuller birim kok testi, Engle-Granger es butunlesme testi, hata duzeltme modeli ve Granger nedensellik testi gibi istatistiksel yontemler kullanilmistir. BIST ve GOLD endeksleri arasinda uzun donemde denge var anlamina gelen es butunlesme tespit edilmistir. Granger nedensellik testi calisilan donem icin BIST endeksinden GOLD endeksine dogru tek yonlu bir nedensellik iliskisinin varligini gostermistir. Kisa donem dinamikleri acisindan esitsizlik duzeltme hizinin dusuk ve gunluk olarak yalnizca %2 oraninda oldugu belirlenmistir. Uzun donem denge degerinden bir sapma yaklasik 50 gunluk bir surecte ortadan kalkmaktadir.

Keywords

eş bütünleşme;hata düzeltme modeli;BIST 100 Endeksi;BIST Altın Endeksi

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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Average
Average
Average
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