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Revista de la CEPAL
Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
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El escaso poder predictivo de simples curvas de Phillips en Chile

Authors: Hernán Rubio Hurtado; Pablo Pincheira Brown;

El escaso poder predictivo de simples curvas de Phillips en Chile

Abstract

En este trabajo se explora la existencia, robustez y magnitud del eventual aporte que puedan tener diversas medidas de actividad en la tarea de predecir inflacion en Chile, sobre la base de algunas versiones retrospectivas (backward-looking) de curvas de Phillips estimadas tanto con datos revisados como con datos en tiempo real. Los principales resultados confirman los hallazgos de la literatura reciente a nivel internacional: el aporte predictivo de las medidas de actividad aqui consideradas es episodico, inestable y de magnitud moderada. Este precario aporte predictivo es robusto a la utilizacion de datos definitivos y en tiempo real.

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
bronze