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Cumhuriyet Science Journal
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Modeling Long Memory Volatilities of Nigeria Selected Macro Economic Variables with Arfima and Arfima Figarch

Authors: Ayoade Adewole;

Modeling Long Memory Volatilities of Nigeria Selected Macro Economic Variables with Arfima and Arfima Figarch

Abstract

The research delved into analysing the stochastic characteristics of Nigeria's Real GDP, the exchange rate of the Naira to US Dollar, and the inflation rate employing Autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) and the Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average Fractionally Integrated Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (FIGARCH) modelling approach. The ability of the hybrid formation of ARFIMA-FIGARCH model with Nigeria macroeconomic variables in modeling the periodicity of long memory volatilities was examined. ARIMA GARCH method of modeling was also employed in analyzing the volatilities of Nigeria selected macroeconomic variables to enrich the study. The efficiency of ARFIMA, ARFIMA FIGARCH and ARIMA GARCH models were evaluated with the forecast evaluation measurements. Results revealed that ARFIMA FIGARCH and ARIMA GARCH models are more adequate in modeling the Inflation rate and the exchange rate while ARFIMA present more adequacies in modeling the RGDP. This result revealed evidence of high volatilities in Nigeria Inflation and the exchange rate of Naira to US dollar

Country
Turkey
Keywords

Applied Statistics, : Volatilities;Long Memory;Macroeconomic variables;Arfima Figarch, Uygulamalı İstatistik

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
gold