
doi: 10.17615/bhyf-yp79
This study analyzes how voter opinions on European issues—including immigration and national sovereignty—affect their vote choice for a more or less Euroskeptic party in the European Parliament (EP). Specifically, I am looking at these voting patterns for the 2014 EP election. I seek to answer the question: do anti-immigration and pro-national sovereignty opinions cause voters to vote for more Euroskeptic parties? I challenge the predominance of the second-order election model in explaining EP voting behavior. The second-order model posits that voters in EP elections select parties based on their motivations to reward or punish their incumbent national governments. I hypothesize instead that European elections have increasingly taken on a first-order character. The question is what kind of first-order issues drive voters? I argue that non-economic issues related to an emergent transnational cleavage co-determine voting behavior. I contrast this model with one that privileges economic factors. I use survey data gathered from voters after the 2014 EP election by the European Election Studies and data on party positioning from another source—the Chapel Hill Expert Survey. The chief findings of my study are a) immigration and national sovereignty opinions do affect voters’ decisions to vote Euroskeptic or Pro-European, b) the salience of these issues significantly strengthens the effect of these issues on voting behavior, and c) opinions on immigration in 2014 did not have as great of an effect on voting behavior as immigration salience did.
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 0 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Average | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
