Modeling of competitive activity forms the basis for the rationalization and improvement of those means and methods that are used in sports training of athletes. In this regard, a hypothesis was put forward that predictive skating models will ensure the achievement of a certain level of sports results in short-track speed skating. Study purpose. The aim of the study was to develop a prognostic model of the competitive activity of elite athletes at a distance of 500 m in short-track on the basis of regression analysis with a focus on achieving specified results. Materials and methods. The study used an analysis of official competition protocols, modeling method, statistical analysis. The behavior of changes in the speed of skating at a distance of 500 m in 173 elite athletes was analyzed. The main components of competitive activity in short-track were revealed. Results. The results obtained have theoretical significance which lies in the scientific substantiation of the need to improve competitive activity on the basis of its studying and the building of skating models. Their practical significance consists in the development and use of models of competitive activity of elite athletes at a distance of 500 m in short-track, taking into account the construction of a skating option. The presented data are an action plan that allows you to purposefully manage the training process and improve the training of athletes in short-track speed skating at a distance of 500 m in an annual cycle. When processing the results of the study, the level of statistical significance was taken as p ≤ 0.05. Conclusions. The informative characteristics of competitive activity that affect the result at a distance of 500 m include acceleration speed and running speed on the first, second, third and fourth laps of the distance, multiple correlation coefficient r = 0.985 (p < 0.01). These are objective criteria which are a system-forming factor that determines the structure and content of the training process of elite athletes, and allow monitoring the level of special readiness, as well as predicting the ways of further improvement and making timely corrections in the training process.