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SINTEF Open
Article . 2021
Data sources: SINTEF Open
International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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CLOSURE LAW MODEL UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION

Authors: Strand, Andreas; Kjølaas, Jørn; Bergstrøm, Trond Harald; Steinsland, Ingelin; Hellevik, Leif Rune;

CLOSURE LAW MODEL UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION

Abstract

The prediction uncertainty in simulators for industrial processes is due to uncertainties in the input variables and uncertainties in specification of the models, in particular the closure laws. In this work, the uncertainty in each closure law was modeled as a random variable and the parameters of its distribution were optimized to correctly quantify the uncertainty in predictions. We have developed two methods for optimization, based on the integrated quadratic distance and the energy score. The proposed methods were applied to the commercial multiphase flow simulator LedaFlow with the liquid volume fraction and pressure gradient as output variables. Two datasets were analyzed. Both describe two-phase gas-liquid flow, but are otherwise fundamentally different. One is gas-dominated stratified/annular flow and the other is liquid-dominated slug flow. The closure law for the gas-wall friction factor is decisive for the gas-dominated predictions, and the estimated relative standard deviation is 4.5% or 8.0% depending on method. The liquid-dominated study showed that the liquid-wall friction factor and the slug bubble velocity are the closure laws with the greatest impact. Moreover, the estimated relative standard deviation in the liquid-wall friction factor is 5%, and the deviation in the slug bubble velocity is 4%. We used direct measurements of the slug bubble velocity to validate the estimated uncertainty.

Country
Norway
Keywords

LedaFlow, multiphase flow, prediction, uncertainty propagation, closure laws

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green