At the end of 20th century, fundamental social and economic changes took place in Russian society, reflecting changes in level and structure of poverty, as well as opportunities to get out of it. The economic reforms of "shock therapy" led to mass mobility of people up and down between social groups. At the same time, a large part of the population found itself on a social bottom in conditions of increasing inequality. A phenomenon of the “working poor” appeared. Despite the decrease in the level of the poor in the economically prosperous 2000-2009 years, social group of chronically poor individuals appeared in the country. The multidimensionality of deprivation of this group is explained by both the insufficiency of income to cover the subsistence minimum and the absence or deficit of accumulated assets. In this paper it is proposed to create a mathematical ordered logit model for identifying the main factors that influence households to go into/out of chronic poverty, as well as to become transient poor. As a result, the same factors make a household more likely to be chronic poor (as opposed to transient poor) and more likely to be poor in the first place (as opposed to non-poor). All independent variables have the same sign on the probability of a household being transient and chronic poor, and the opposite sign on the probability of being non-poor. The ordered logit model helps to understand the probability of a household with certain features to be part of chronic poverty profile.