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Demonstratio Mathematica
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FUZZY PROBABILITY THEORY

Fuzzy probability theory
Authors: Stanley Gudder;

FUZZY PROBABILITY THEORY

Abstract

Probability theory is usually based on a probability space \((\Omega, {\mathcal A},P)\) where the sets \(A\in{\mathcal A}\), resp., the indicator functions \(I_A\), are interpreted as events and the measurable maps \(\widehat X: \Omega\to \mathbb{R}\), i.e., the random variables, as observable quantities. Fuzzy probability theory, as understood by the author and some others [\textit{S. Bugajski}, Int. J. Theor. Phys. 35, No. 11, 2229-2244 (1996; Zbl 0872.60003); \textit{S. Bugajski}, \textit{K.-E. Hellwig} and \textit{W. Stulpe}, Rep. Math. Phys. 41, No. 1, 1-11 (1998)], is a generalization of standard probability theory where so-called fuzzy events are described by arbitrary measurable functions \(f:\Omega \to[0,1]\) and the integral \(\int fdP\) is interpreted to be the probability for the occurrence of \(f\). Denoting the set of all fuzzy events \(f\) by \({\mathcal E}(\Omega, {\mathcal A})\) and the Borel sets of the real line by \({\mathcal B}(\mathbb{R})\), a fuzzy random variable, i.e., an observable quantity, is given by a map \(X:{\mathcal B}(\mathbb{R}) \to{\mathcal E}(\Omega, {\mathcal A})\) satisfying (i) \(X(\mathbb{R})= I_\Omega\), (ii) \(X(\bigcup^\infty_{i=1} B_i)= \sum^\infty_{i=1} X(B_i)\), \(B_i\cap B_j= \emptyset\) for \(i\neq j\), the sum converging pointwise, i.e., by a fuzzy-event valued measure. The probability distribution of a fuzzy random variable \(X\) is the measure \(B\mapsto\int X(B)d\mu\). Standard random variables \(\widehat X:\Omega \to\mathbb{R}\) can be reformulated as measures \(X:{\mathcal B}(\mathbb{R}) \to{\mathcal E}(\Omega, {\mathcal A})\) according to \(X(B):= I_{X^{-1}(B)}\). It is proved that, conversely, every fuzzy random variable whose values are indicator functions on \(\Omega\), corresponds to a standard random variable \(\widehat X\) this way. Thus, standard random variables can be considered as very particular fuzzy random variables [for this and further results in this context, cf. the above cited paper by S. Bugajski et al.]. The author furthermore investigates joint fuzzy random variables as well as conditional expectations and independence of fuzzy random variables. Several theorems are proved, in particular, generalizations of the Borel-Cantelli lemma, the weak and the strong law of large numbers, and the central limit theorem in the fuzzy context. Summarizing, this paper presents an important relatively new subject concerning the foundations of probability theory as well as several results due to the author.

Keywords

fuzzy events, independence, Logical foundations of quantum mechanics; quantum logic (quantum-theoretic aspects), Central limit and other weak theorems, effects, Theory of fuzzy sets, etc., joint distributions, Axioms; other general questions in probability, fuzzy random variables, observables

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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
48
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
gold