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CCWI2017: F65 'A COMPARISON OF SHORT-TERM WATER DEMAND FORECASTING MODELS'

Authors: Pacchin, E.; Gagliardi, F.; Alvisi, S.; Franchini, M.;

CCWI2017: F65 'A COMPARISON OF SHORT-TERM WATER DEMAND FORECASTING MODELS'

Abstract

In this paper a comparison among six short-term water demand forecasting models is presented. The models differ in terms of forecasting technique, type of prevision (deterministic or probabilistic) and data requirement for calibration. In particular, the compared models are: an Artificial Neural Network based model, a model based on periodic patterns, both requiring a calibration over a year of historically observed water demands, two models that take into account the periodic behaviours using observed data only on a restricted time window preceding the time of forecast, a probabilistic model based on Markov chain and a Naïve model. All the models are evaluated applying them to seven real-life case studies, consisting in two-year time series of hourly water demands observed in districts/networks with a number of users variable from 120000 to 300. The comparison shows that all the models provide similar and medium-high forecasting accuracy for each case study but the models based on the moving-window technique are more robust and their performances do not worse moving from the calibration to the validation period as for all the other models considered.

Country
United Kingdom
Keywords

Civil engineering not elsewhere classified

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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