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GARCH-class models estimations and value-at-risk analysis for exchange rate

Authors: Samir Mabrouk; Chaker Aloui;

GARCH-class models estimations and value-at-risk analysis for exchange rate

Abstract

In this paper, we focus on three daily exchange rate returns dynamics. Indeed, we have assessed five GARCH-class models under three alternative distributions. Our findings confirm that the skewed Student-t FIAPARCH model performs very well. Then, we have computed short and long Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall based on AR (1) – FIAPARCH under normal, Student-t and skewed Student-t distributions. More precisely, we have investigated the estimation performance by computing both In-sample and Out-of-sample VaR for one-day-ahead horizon. Results reveal that VaR and ES estimations based on skewed Student-t FIAPARCH models outperform other models for both long and short trading positions.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
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