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Inflation in Pakistan: evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach

Authors: Muhammad Shahid Hassan; Faridul Islam; Muhammad Ijaz;

Inflation in Pakistan: evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach

Abstract

This paper applies the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration to explore a long- and short-run relationship among export per capita; indirect taxes per capita; external debt per capita; exchange rate; crude oil prices and inflation in Pakistan over the period of 1976-2011. The ADF and PP unit root tests are applied to examine the stationarity properties of each series. We find that the series are cointegrated. The impacts of exports, exchange rate and crude oil prices on inflation are found to be positive and highly significant; but that of indirect taxes is positive, significant at the 10% level only. The impact of external debt is negative but not statistically significant. Finally, based on CUSUM and CUSUM square graphs, we confirm that the estimates are structurally stable. The findings shed new insight for the policymakers in controlling inflation in Pakistan.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
9
Top 10%
Average
Average
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