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Accident prediction models for unsignalized intersections

Authors: Rodríguez, Luis F. (Luis Felipe);

Accident prediction models for unsignalized intersections

Abstract

The main objective of this thesis is to develop Accident Prediction Models (APM) for estimating the safety potential of urban unsignalized (T and 4-leg) intersections in the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD) and Vancouver Island on the basis of their traffic characteristics. The models are developed using the generalized linear regression modeling (GLIM) approach, which addresses and overcomes the shortcomings associated with the conventional linear regression approach. The safety predictions obtained from GLIM models can be refined using the Empirical Bayes' approach to provide, more accurate, site-specific safety estimates. The use of the complementary Empirical Bayes approach can significantly reduce the regression to the mean bias that is inherent in observed accident counts. The thesis made use of sample accident and traffic volume data corresponding to unsignalized (both T and 4-leg) intersections located in urban areas of the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD) and Vancouver Island. The data included a total of 427 intersections located in the cities of Victoria, Surrey, Nanaimo, Coquitlam, Burnaby and Vancouver. The information available for each intersection included the total number of accidents in the 1993-1995 period, traffic volumes for both major and minor roads given in Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) and type of intersection (T or 4-leg). Four categories of models were developed in this study: (1) models for the total number of accidents; (2) separate models for T and 4-leg intersections; (3) separate models for different regions (Vancouver Island, the Lower Mainland and Surrey); and (4) a model for Surrey including intersection control. Five applications of APM were used in this thesis. Four of them relate to the use of the Empirical Bayes refinement: identification of accident-prone locations, developing critical accident frequency curves, ranking the identified accident-prone locations and before and after safety evaluation. The fifth application provides a safety-planning example, comparing the safety of a 4-leg intersection to two staggered T-intersections. These applications show the importance of implementing APM as a tool to assess in a reliable fashion traffic safety, and design different safety strategies.

Countries
United States, Mexico, Canada, Canada
Keywords

310

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
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