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The Basic Reproduction Number as a Predictor for Epidemic Outbreaks in Temporal Networks

Authors: Holme, Petter; Masuda, Naoki;

The Basic Reproduction Number as a Predictor for Epidemic Outbreaks in Temporal Networks

Abstract

The basic reproduction number R0 -- the number of individuals directly infected by an infectious person in an otherwise susceptible population -- is arguably the most widely used estimator of how severe an epidemic outbreak can be. This severity can be more directly measured as the fraction people infected once the outbreak is over, ��. In traditional mathematical epidemiology and common formulations of static network epidemiology, there is a deterministic relationship between R0 and ��. However, if one considers disease spreading on a temporal contact network -- where one knows when contacts happen, not only between whom -- then larger R0 does not necessarily imply larger ��. In this paper, we numerically investigate the relationship between R0 and �� for a set of empirical temporal networks of human contacts. Among 31 explanatory descriptors of temporal network structure, we identify those that make R0 an imperfect predictor of ��. We find that descriptors related to both temporal and topological aspects affect the relationship between R0 and ��, but in different ways.

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Sweden
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Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, Infectious Medicine, Physics - Physics and Society, Time Factors, Science, Basic Reproduction Number, FOS: Physical sciences, Infektionsmedicin, Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph), Communicable Diseases, Humans, Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution, Epidemics, Social and Information Networks (cs.SI), Q, R, Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE), Social Support, Computer Science - Social and Information Networks, FOS: Biological sciences, Medicine, Research Article

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
67
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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gold
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