This paper presents an analytical model and experimental validation for the detection performance and false-alarm rates for phase-encoded random modulation continuous-wave (RMCW) LiDAR. Derivation of the model focuses on propagating the effects of relevant noise sources through the system to determine an analytical expression for the detection rate, expressed by the probability of detection. The model demonstrates that probability of detection depends only on three factors: i) the mean signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the measurement; ii) the measurement integration time; and iii) speckle-induced intensity noise. The predicted analytical relationship between measurement SNR and probability of detection was validated by numerical simulations and experimental demonstrations in both a controlled fiber channel and under fully-developed speckle conditions in an uncontrolled free-space channel.