
This paper presents an essentially affine model of the term structure of interest rates making use of macroeconomic factors and their long-run expectations. The model extends the approach pioneered by Kozicki and Tinsley (2001) by modeling consistently long-run inflation expectations simultaneously with the term structure. Application to the U.S. economy shows the importance of long-run inflation expectations in the modeling of long-term bond yields. The paper also provides a macroeconomic interpretation for the latent factors found in standard finance models of the yield curve: the "level" factor represents the long-run inflation expectation of agents; the "slope" factor captures business cycle conditions; and the "curvature" factor expresses a clear independent monetary policy factor.
essentially affine term structure model, macroeconomic factors, long-run market expectations, monetary policy rule, Essentially affine term structure model, long-run market expectations, macroeconomic factors, monetary policy rule, jel: jel:M, jel: jel:M41, jel: jel:G3, jel: jel:E43, jel: jel:E44, jel: jel:E52
essentially affine term structure model, macroeconomic factors, long-run market expectations, monetary policy rule, Essentially affine term structure model, long-run market expectations, macroeconomic factors, monetary policy rule, jel: jel:M, jel: jel:M41, jel: jel:G3, jel: jel:E43, jel: jel:E44, jel: jel:E52
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| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 1% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% |
