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Journal of Modern Science
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY SA
Data sources: Crossref
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Journal of Modern Science
Article . 2025
Data sources: DOAJ
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Discretion as a policy tool - an analysis of the National Bank of Poland's role in intervention strategies during the economic crisis

Authors: Konrad Trzonkowski;

Discretion as a policy tool - an analysis of the National Bank of Poland's role in intervention strategies during the economic crisis

Abstract

ObjectivesThe decision-making discretion of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) plays a key role in enhancing the country's economic stability during economic crises. The premise is that flexibility and the ability to respond quickly to changing economic conditions are essential for effective economic management in times of crisis. Decision-making discretion allows the National Bank of Poland to take non-standard actions that would not be possible under a rigid policy based on predetermined rules.Material and methodsEconometric models, such as Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, are often used to analyze the effects of central banks' monetary policies during crises.ResultsThe conducted analysis of time series data and VAR modeling, combined with Diebold and Yilmaz spillovers indexes, show that the decision-making discretion of the National Bank of Poland plays a key role in enhancing the country's economic stability during the economic crisis. The results of the analysis indicate that the NBP's interventions are effective in reducing the volatility of inflation, the unemployment rate and GDP growth, as well as in transmitting the effects of monetary policy between different sectors of the economy.Conclusions1. NBP should implement a quarterly scenario-based stress testing framework to forecast the impact of extreme macroeconomic conditions on monetary stability. This framework should incorporate scenarios such as a 5% GDP contraction or inflation surging by 3% above target levels. 2. NBP could adopt a pre-emptive intervention cap set at 50 billion PLN for liquidity support operations over a six-month period. This limit would ensure timely and adequate responses to crises while maintaining financial system confidence and avoiding excessive fiscal burdens.

Related Organizations
Keywords

national bank of poland, H, monetary policy, Social Sciences, economic crisis, macroecomomics, fiscal policy

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
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