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Desarrollo y Sociedad
Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
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Desarrollo y Sociedad
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Expectativas de inflación, prima de riesgo inflacionario y prima de liquidez: una descomposición del break-even inflation para los bonos del Gobierno colombiano

Authors: Espinosa-Torres, Juan Andrés; Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando; Moreno-Gutiérrez, José Fernando;

Expectativas de inflación, prima de riesgo inflacionario y prima de liquidez: una descomposición del break-even inflation para los bonos del Gobierno colombiano

Abstract

We estimate the break-even inflation’s decomposition following a 6 factor affine term structure model for the nominal and real Colombian government’s bonds, among which a liquidity factor is included. This measure allows to be decomposed in inflation expectations, inflationary risk premium and a liquidity premium for the June 2004 to April 2015 period. Our findings show that the break-even inflation is an appropriate estimate of the short run inflation expectations (2 years). In addition, we find a time decreasing inflationary risk premium, which can be associated to an increase in the agents’ trust in the monetary policy. Finally, the liquidity premium has very small values for most of the time periods and only has considerable effects for certain periods across the yield curve, such as the first semester of 2006.

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Keywords

break-even inflation, inflation expectations, estructura a términos de las tasas de interés, expectativas de inflación, prima de riesgo inflacionario, affine model, modelo afín, liquidity premium, prima de liquidez, Term structure of interest rates, inflationary risk premium

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
gold