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ISEE Conference Abstracts
Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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ISEE Conference Abstracts
Article
License: CC BY NC
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Environmental Science & Technology
Article . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Projecting Fine Particulate Matter-related Mortality in East China

Authors: Madaniyazi, Lina; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Guo, Yuming; Yu, Vivian (Weiwei); Tong, Shilu;

Projecting Fine Particulate Matter-related Mortality in East China

Abstract

China is suffering from severe air pollution from fine particulate matter [≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5)], especially East China. But its future trends and potential health impacts remain unclear. The study objectives were to project future trends of PM2.5 and its short-term effect on mortality in East China by 2030. First, daily changes in PM2.5 concentrations between 2005 and 2030 were projected under the "current legislation" scenario (CLE) and the "maximum technically feasible reduction" scenario (MFR). Then, they were linked to six population projections, two mortality rate projections, and PM2.5-mortality associations to estimate the changes in PM2.5-related mortality in East China between 2005 and 2030. Under the CLE scenario, the annual mean PM2.5 concentration was projected to decrease by 0.62 μg/m(3) in East China, which could cause up to 124,000 additional deaths, when considering the population growth. Under the MFR scenario, the annual mean PM2.5 concentration was projected to decrease by 20.41 μg/m(3) in East China. At least 230,000 deaths could be avoided by such a large reduction in PM2.5 concentration under MFR scenario, even after accounting for the population growth. Therefore, our results suggest that reducing PM2.5 concentration substantially in East China would benefit the public health. Otherwise, it may still remain as a great health risk in the future, especially when the population keeps growing.

Country
Australia
Keywords

Air Pollutants, China, Legislation as Topic, Uncertainty, Fine Particulate Matter, 1600 Chemistry, 950, Emissions, 2304 Environmental Chemistry, Air Pollution, Particulate Matter, Projection, Mortality, Particle Size

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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
69
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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