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Medical Science Monitor
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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Other literature type . 2020
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Development and Validation of Prognostic Nomograms for Patients with Duodenal Neuroendocrine Neoplasms

Authors: Shenghong Sun; Wei Wang; Chiyi He;

Development and Validation of Prognostic Nomograms for Patients with Duodenal Neuroendocrine Neoplasms

Abstract

BACKGROUND This study was designed to predict prognosis of patients with primary duodenal neuroendocrine neoplasms (D-NENs) by developing nomograms. MATERIAL AND METHODS Patients diagnosed with D-NENs between 1988 and 2015 were queried from the SEER database and a total of 965 appropriate cases were randomly separated into the training and validation sets. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to generated survival curves, and the difference among the groups was assessed by the log-rank test. Independent prognostic indicators were acquired by Cox regression analysis, and were used to develop predictive overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) nomograms. Harrell's concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the efficacy of nomograms. Tumor stage was regarded as a benchmark in predicting prognostic compared with the nomograms built in this study. RESULTS The C-index was 0.739 (0.690-0.788) and 0.859 (0.802-0.916) for OS and CSS nomograms, respectively. Calibration curves exhibited obvious consistency between the nomograms and the actual observations. In addition, C-index, AUC, and DCA were better than tumor stage in the evaluative performance of nomograms. CONCLUSIONS The nomograms were able to predict the 1-, 5-, and 10-year OS and CSS for D-NENs patients. The good performance of these nomograms suggest that they can be used for evaluating the prognosis of patients with D-NENs and can facilitate individualized treatment in clinical practice.

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Keywords

Adult, Aged, 80 and over, Male, Adolescent, Marital Status, Age Factors, Carcinoid Tumor, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Middle Aged, Carcinoma, Neuroendocrine, Black or African American, Duodenal Neoplasms, Gastrinoma, Database Analysis, Ethnicity, Humans, Female, Neoplasm Grading, Digestive System Surgical Procedures, Aged, Neoplasm Staging

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
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gold
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