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BACKGROUND This study was designed to predict prognosis of patients with primary duodenal neuroendocrine neoplasms (D-NENs) by developing nomograms. MATERIAL AND METHODS Patients diagnosed with D-NENs between 1988 and 2015 were queried from the SEER database and a total of 965 appropriate cases were randomly separated into the training and validation sets. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to generated survival curves, and the difference among the groups was assessed by the log-rank test. Independent prognostic indicators were acquired by Cox regression analysis, and were used to develop predictive overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) nomograms. Harrell's concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the efficacy of nomograms. Tumor stage was regarded as a benchmark in predicting prognostic compared with the nomograms built in this study. RESULTS The C-index was 0.739 (0.690-0.788) and 0.859 (0.802-0.916) for OS and CSS nomograms, respectively. Calibration curves exhibited obvious consistency between the nomograms and the actual observations. In addition, C-index, AUC, and DCA were better than tumor stage in the evaluative performance of nomograms. CONCLUSIONS The nomograms were able to predict the 1-, 5-, and 10-year OS and CSS for D-NENs patients. The good performance of these nomograms suggest that they can be used for evaluating the prognosis of patients with D-NENs and can facilitate individualized treatment in clinical practice.
Adult, Aged, 80 and over, Male, Adolescent, Marital Status, Age Factors, Carcinoid Tumor, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Middle Aged, Carcinoma, Neuroendocrine, Black or African American, Duodenal Neoplasms, Gastrinoma, Database Analysis, Ethnicity, Humans, Female, Neoplasm Grading, Digestive System Surgical Procedures, Aged, Neoplasm Staging
Adult, Aged, 80 and over, Male, Adolescent, Marital Status, Age Factors, Carcinoid Tumor, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Middle Aged, Carcinoma, Neuroendocrine, Black or African American, Duodenal Neoplasms, Gastrinoma, Database Analysis, Ethnicity, Humans, Female, Neoplasm Grading, Digestive System Surgical Procedures, Aged, Neoplasm Staging
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